The supply wave: about 35,000 Tbilisi units and 18,000 in Batumi this year

Permits and launches say what developers intend; completions say what actually arrives. A unit handed over this year is a unit that can be let, furnished and listed, or resold, from this year. That is why a single peak year matters more than a steady pipeline: the stock available to tenants and buyers in Tbilisi and on the Adjara coast rises in one step, and the market has to absorb it over the following seasons rather than gradually.

The same forecast traces gross rental yields in Batumi from 10% in 2023 down to 7.4% in 2025, and projects a further fall into a 5.1% to 3.4% range. Net of running costs those gross figures typically land at 3-4%, and the forecast warns they could compress towards 1.5-2% if the apartment stock doubles. It also contrasts apartments averaging about USD 34 a night at 31% occupancy with hotels at about USD 286 and 68.6%, which is the gap between an asset that sells four strong months and one that sells a year.

The forecast also expects construction costs to rise about 8% during 2026 and wages about 9%. A developer facing higher build costs and a buyer facing lower rental returns are the two sides of the same year, and they tend to meet in slower launches and more discounting on unsold stock rather than in a sudden price drop. For an owner already holding a finished flat, the practical consequence is competition: more comparable units reaching the rental market at once makes the asking rent harder to hold.

These are projections made earlier in the year, not a count of what has been handed over. Completion dates slip, and a tower reported as finishing in 2026 may be certified in 2027. Before using the numbers in a decision, it is worth checking the official construction and commissioning statistics for the current quarter, and in a specific building, asking for the occupancy permit rather than the developer's expected date.