The rate stays at 8.25%, and growth is now forecast at 7.2%
On 21 October 2026 the National Bank of Georgia's Monetary Policy Committee left the refinancing rate at 8.25%, where it has sat since a quarter-point rise on 6 May. The same statement raised the 2026 inflation forecast by 0.2 points to 5.4% and lifted the 2026 growth forecast from 6.5% to 7.2%. September inflation ran at 5.6%, of which the bank attributes roughly two percentage points to energy prices. Core inflation was 3.5% and services inflation 3.7%, both below the headline. The committee next meets on 16 December.
Five meetings, one level
The committee's published record for this year shows the rate held at 8.0% in February and March, raised a quarter point to 8.25% on 6 May, and then left alone at four consecutive meetings: June, July, September and October. For anyone with a variable-rate loan in lari, that is nearly six months without a change in the reference the bank sets. The committee describes its stance as moderately tight and says it expects to keep it that way for an extended period, which is about as close as a central bank comes to telling borrowers not to wait for relief this year.
The forecast revisions say more than the hold
Holding a rate is the expected outcome and tells you little. The two revisions in the same statement tell you more. The bank now expects average inflation of 5.4% this year rather than 5.2%, and growth of 7.2% rather than 6.5% — a large upward revision to activity made eight months into the year. Growth averaged 7.6% over January to August, with 6.3% recorded in August alone, so the revision is catching up with data already in hand rather than predicting an acceleration. Strong activity alongside above-target inflation is precisely the combination that keeps a central bank from cutting.
Where the pressure is actually coming from
The bank splits September's 5.6% into parts, and attributes about two percentage points of it to energy prices. Strip those out and the underlying measures look much calmer: core inflation at 3.5% and services at 3.7%, against a 3% target. That split is why the committee is holding rather than tightening — an energy shock is the kind of price pressure a rate rise cannot reach, and raising rates to fight it only slows everything else. The risk the bank names is second-round effects, meaning the point at which an energy shock stops being a one-off and starts showing up in wages and service prices.
What 16 December is for
The next decision is the last of the year and the first one at which the bank will have most of 2026 in the data. Two things are worth watching in it. The first is whether core and services inflation stay below the headline: as long as they do, the bank's story that this is an energy shock holds, and the path eventually points down. The second is the language about normalisation. The committee has said twice now that it will begin gradually normalising once the shock fades — the meeting at which that sentence changes tense is the one that matters for anyone timing a loan or a purchase.
Written by us from the source linked above, not investment, legal or tax advice. Figures and rules change — confirm anything that matters before acting on it.
