The rate stayed at 8.25% — and the 2026 inflation forecast went up to 5.4%

The rate is unchanged at 8.25 percent, the level set in May 2026 and held at every meeting since. The bank's own explanation is that the deviation of inflation from its 3 percent target is still driven mostly by factors outside Georgia: a longer-than-expected supply shock from Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and disruption to international shipping and transport that feeds into production costs. Core inflation was 3.5 percent in September and services inflation 3.7 percent, both below the 5.6 percent headline figure, which the bank reads as a sign that longer-term price expectations have not yet come loose.

The forecast revisions are the news. Average inflation for 2026 is now projected at 5.4 percent rather than 5.2 percent, with convergence toward the 3 percent target expected only from the second half of 2027, averaging 3.5 percent for that year. At the same time the growth projection for 2026 went up from 6.5 to 7.2 percent, with 2027 expected around 5.5 percent. Economic growth was 6.3 percent in August on preliminary data, and averaged 7.6 percent over the first eight months of the year. In short: more inflation for longer, and more growth than the bank had assumed.

The committee set out its own conditions plainly: if the prolonged supply shock starts to push inflation expectations upward, it will keep raising the rate moderately; once the shock fades, it will begin normalising gradually. Neither of those has happened yet, which is why the rate has not moved in five months. For anyone pricing a lari loan or a lari deposit, the practical reading is that the current cost of borrowing is unlikely to fall before the shock passes, and the bank is explicitly not promising when that will be. The decision is also a reminder that the next scheduled chance for any change is 16 December.