The policy rate held at 8.25%, and the growth forecast went up to 7.2%

At its October 2026 meeting, reported on 21 October, the National Bank of Georgia kept the monetary policy rate at 8.25% and described its stance as moderately tight. The rate has been unchanged through the July, September and October meetings, and the next scheduled decision is 16 December 2026. The official rate is the seven-day refinancing rate. For context, the series high was 12.00% in April 2008 and the low 3.75% in August 2013, with an average of 7.51% across 2008 to 2026 — so 8.25% sits a little above the long-run average rather than at an extreme.

Annual inflation rose to 5.6% in September, well above the bank's 3% target, with energy prices contributing roughly two percentage points of that. The bank raised its projection for average 2026 inflation to 5.4% from 5.2%, and expects 3.5% in 2027 with a gradual return towards target from the second half of that year. Its stated risk is further escalation in the Middle East pushing energy prices and inflation higher, which it says could lead to additional hikes; if tensions ease and energy prices fall instead, it could normalise policy faster. That is a central bank that has told the market the next move could go either way.

Activity has run ahead of expectations: growth averaged 7.6% across the first eight months of 2026, and the bank raised its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from 6.5%. That is the part of the statement that matters most to anyone holding Georgian property, because it is demand-side support for rents and prices that does not depend on the rate decision at all. It is also why the bank is not cutting: an economy growing at better than 7% while inflation sits at 5.6% is not an economy asking for cheaper money.

A policy rate held flat with an explicit two-sided risk is not a signal to wait for cheaper lari borrowing. If you are financing in lari, price the deal at today's rate and stress it upward rather than assuming December brings relief. If you are buying in cash or in foreign currency, the rate matters less than the inflation path, because 5.4% average inflation for 2026 is what erodes a nominal rental yield in real terms. Either way, the useful date is 16 December: that is when the bank next updates both the rate and the forecasts, and it falls before most Q1 completion dates.