Tbilisi price growth went 20 per cent, then 12, then 4 — and the brokers' own forecast says supply decides what happens next

Average primary-market prices in Tbilisi rose 4.0 per cent in 2025. The two years before that were 11.6 and 20.2 per cent. That sequence — a fifth, then a tenth, then a twenty-fifth — is the single most useful thing an owner or a prospective buyer can hold in their head about this market. The December 2025 primary price was reported at $1,373 per square metre, with the secondary market at $1,316 and, unusually, growing faster: up 7.9 per cent year on year. New stock is no longer pulling away from older stock the way it did.

Total apartment sales in Tbilisi came to 42,388 units in 2025, up 4.3 per cent on the year, with the primary market up 5.2 per cent and the secondary up 3.5 — still below the 2022 peak. On the supply side, permitted living area fell 4.2 per cent to 1.7 million square metres, which sounds like a tightening until you read the comparison the researchers attach to it: permits are still running about 32 per cent above their 2015–22 average. A single year's dip from an elevated base is not a supply constraint.

The note puts average Tbilisi rents inside a $9–10 per square metre band since 2024, with a 50–60 square metre flat at about $9.8 per square metre in December 2025 — which worked out at a rental yield of 8.6 per cent, described as within the market's long-run healthy range. Read together, the two series tell a coherent story: prices rose fast enough in 2023–24 that yields were squeezed, prices have now slowed to roughly the pace of rents, and the yield has stabilised. For a landlord, the practical implication is that recent gains have come from rent being steady against slower price growth, not from rent rising.

This forecast was published in early February, so it is a starting position rather than a verdict on 2026. The researchers' own framing is that demand should hold roughly level and that price growth will therefore depend mainly on supply — specifically, on how much of the announced large-scale pipeline actually breaks ground alongside continued high permit issuance. For anyone deciding whether to sell now or hold, that is the variable to track: completions in your own district, not the citywide average. A neighbourhood absorbing two new towers behaves nothing like one absorbing none.