Tbilisi is due 35,000 finished flats in 2026, against 16,000 to 21,000 before
Galt and Taggart forecasts that Georgia's residential construction cycle peaks this year. Tbilisi is projected to complete 35,000 units in 2026, falling to 27,000 in 2027 and averaging 25,000 a year in 2028 and 2029, against 16,000 to 21,000 completed annually from 2020 to 2025. Batumi is projected at up to 18,000 units in 2026, from 2,000 in 2020 and 13,000 in 2025. The bank expects oversupply to press on prices and rents. If you own here, this is the number that matters most.
Why everything is finishing at the same time
The forecast traces the spike to permits. Georgia issued a record 12 million square metres of construction permits in 2024 and 11.4 million in 2025, of which residential buildings accounted for 77%. Projects started during the demand surge are now reaching completion together, and the sharpest effect is expected in Tbilisi and Batumi. GeoStat's own figures for January to March 2026 show the pipeline still filling: 2,472 permits, up 4.8% year on year, with Tbilisi taking 48.7% of planned activity.
What oversupply does to a yield
The bank's view is that rising delivery volumes are creating oversupply, intensifying competition and putting pressure on both prices and rents. It puts typical net apartment yields at 3% to 4% after expenses and says they continue to fall, with the stark observation that if apartment stock doubles, net returns could fall to 1.5% to 2% or close to zero. That is a forecast, not a measurement, and it should be read as one. But the direction follows straightforwardly from the completion numbers.
Costs are rising at the same time
The same forecast expects construction costs to rise about 8% in 2026 and wages about 9%. For a developer that is a margin squeeze arriving exactly when competition for buyers is hardest. The bank also suggests the focus may shift from development toward furnishing and fit-out, which is a reasonable read: when new stock is abundant and standing empty, the money moves to whatever makes a unit lettable rather than to adding more units.
What an owner should do with this
If you are deciding between selling and letting, the supply forecast argues for acting on the quality of your own unit rather than waiting for the market. In a year when tens of thousands of new flats reach the market in two cities, the units that let well and sell well are the ones that are finished, furnished, well located and realistically priced. A bare shell in a new district competing against thousands of identical bare shells is the position this forecast describes as difficult. Check the completion pipeline in your own district before you set a price.
Written by us from the source linked above, not investment, legal or tax advice. Figures and rules change — confirm anything that matters before acting on it.
