The rate decision lands today, and inflation is still above the bank's own forecast

The committee raised the policy rate by a quarter of a point to 8.25 percent on 6 May 2026 and has left it there at every meeting since: 17 June, 29 July and 9 September. Through the winter it had been 8 percent. Today is therefore the fourth consecutive meeting at which holding is the obvious outcome and a move in either direction would be the news.

In its September statement the bank put average annual inflation for 2026 at around 5.2 percent in the central scenario, and said inflation should converge gradually on the 3 percent target over the medium term. The monthly readings have been running above that average. The composition matters as much as the headline: in September transport prices were 18.7 percent higher than a year earlier, housing and utilities 9.2 percent, restaurants and hotels 7.3 percent, while food slowed to 3.4 percent.

Lending in lari is priced off the policy rate, so the committee's decision works through into new mortgage offers and into the cost of financing a development. It works through into deposit rates as well, which is the alternative a seller weighs against holding on to a flat. The other channel runs through the tenant: when housing and utility costs are rising at more than nine percent a year, the share of a household budget left for rent is the first thing to come under pressure.

The statement is short, and the useful part is usually the paragraph on the balance of risks and the line on economic activity. In September the bank noted growth of 8 percent in July and an average of 7.9 percent over the first seven months, and described strong demand as a source of inflationary pressure partly offset by high-productivity sectors. If that framing shifts today, the direction of the next few meetings shifts with it — which matters more to anyone borrowing over five or ten years than the single number printed in the headline.