Property contributed less to growth this year, while ICT carried almost 29%

The EBRD now projects real GDP growth of 6.5% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027, each half a point above its June forecasts, after the economy grew 7.8% in the first half of 2026. An upgrade of that size in the middle of a year is a vote of confidence in the demand side, and it is the backdrop against which every yield assumption in a Georgian investment case is currently being written.

The composition is the interesting part. TBC Capital attributes almost 29% of real GDP growth to information and communications technology, while real estate's contribution more than halved compared with the first half of 2025. The economy is still expanding quickly, but property is no longer doing as much of the pulling — it is increasingly a sector that benefits from growth elsewhere rather than one that generates it.

If the engine is ICT and services, the demand that matters for a rental is salaried tenants and relocating staff, not construction crews. That argues for stock close to offices, reliable internet and the kind of flat a professional couple will stay in for two years, over a speculative unit chosen purely on price per square metre. It also argues for caution about any pitch that treats construction volumes as a proxy for demand.

The same summary lists the downside risks the bank sees: tensions with the European Union, and Middle East conflict affecting tourism flows and energy costs. Neither is a forecast of anything, and both are outside any owner's control. They are worth noting for what they imply about which assumptions to stress-test — occupancy from European visitors, and the running costs of a building through a winter.