Permitted floor area in Tbilisi fell 29.9% while sales value rose 23.1%

In March 2026 alone, 17 residential projects were permitted, covering 150,241 square metres of living area — down 6.7% against March a year earlier. Across the whole quarter the fall was far steeper at 29.9%. On the demand side, March saw 4,121 apartments sold, split almost evenly between 2,068 secondary-market units and 2,053 primary-market ones, although the report notes that primary figures are distorted by developers registering transactions late.

A permit is not a flat. It is the beginning of a building that will finish two to three years later, which is why the permit line is the most forward-looking number in a monthly market report. A quarter down 29.9% says something about what will come to market in 2028 and 2029, not about what is on sale now. Read that way, a steep fall in permits alongside strong sales is the pattern that tightens a market later rather than loosening it.

The same report put primary-market prices at USD 1,403 per square metre and secondary at USD 1,305, both barely moved month on month. Rent on a typical 50 to 60 square metre apartment was USD 9.9 per square metre, down 1.2% from the previous month, giving a gross yield of 8.5%. So the quarter's story is not a price surge: prices were close to flat and volumes did the work. That matters, because a market rising on volume behaves differently on the way down than one rising on price.

If you are deciding between selling now and letting, the permit figure is an argument for patience on the sale and realism on the rent. Fewer starts today means less competing new stock around 2028, which supports resale value then; a rent that slipped month on month means today's letting market is not short of supply. If you are buying, the opposite reading applies to negotiation: there is plenty finishing in the next two years, and that is where the room to bargain is.