The central bank left the policy rate at 8.25% on 9 September — and said the next move could still be up

At its meeting on 9 September 2026 the National Bank of Georgia held the refinancing rate at 8.25%, keeping a moderately tight stance. Annual inflation had reached 5.6% in August, above the bank's 3% target, with the pressure attributed mainly to supply-side factors — higher energy costs linked to geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and international food prices. The bank expects average inflation of around 5.2% for 2026 and a gradual return towards target over the medium term.

The signal was two-sided but not neutral. The bank indicated it could raise the rate moderately if prolonged supply shocks start to push inflation expectations higher, while saying that normalisation — meaning cuts — would begin once inflationary pressure eases. In plain terms, the bank is not promising cheaper money soon, and it has reserved the right to make money more expensive if the current price pressures embed themselves.

The policy rate is the floor under lari lending. It feeds into mortgage pricing, into the rate a developer pays on a construction facility, and into what a bank will offer a small business borrowing against a guesthouse. A hold is not neutral for someone waiting to borrow: it means another quarter at current cost. If your plan depends on refinancing at a lower rate in a year, that plan is resting on an easing cycle the bank has said it will start only once inflation cooperates.

Two habits are worth keeping. Stress-test any lari borrowing at a rate a point or so above what you are quoted, since the bank has reserved the option to tighten. And check the current level before relying on any article, including this one, because the rate is reviewed several times a year and a figure that was right in September may not be right by the winter.