The National Bank held at 8.25% again — and left the door open to another rise

The Monetary Policy Committee left the refinancing rate at 8.25% at its 9 September meeting. The rate was lifted a quarter point in May, the first increase in about two years, and has been held since. Annual inflation stood at 5.6% in August, while core inflation, which strips out food, energy and tobacco, was 3.6%. The economy is still expanding quickly: growth was reported at 8.0% in July and averaged 7.9% over the first seven months of the year.

The committee blamed supply-side pressure for most of the overshoot, above all energy prices pushed up by renewed tension in the Middle East, with international food prices adding to it. It pointed out that the stickier measures of inflation remain below the headline figure, which it reads as a sign that expectations are still contained. It still projects inflation to average about 5.2% this year and to drift back to 3% over the medium term.

The message for anyone planning a lari-denominated mortgage is that cheaper money is not imminent. The bank said it could still raise the rate moderately if prolonged supply shocks start to lift inflation expectations, and would only begin to normalise policy once those pressures ease. For sellers, that means buyers who rely on lari credit are likely to face today's borrowing costs for a while yet. The next decision is due on 21 October 2026.