The quieter case for Georgia: debt under 35% of GDP and a record-low trade deficit
In its June 2026 assessment the IMF raised Georgia's growth forecast for the year to 6.5%, from 5.3% in April, after 7.5% growth in 2025. The figures behind that are the ones an investor should weigh: public debt below 35% of GDP, reserves of 6.4 billion dollars at the end of April equal to 102% of the Fund's adequacy metric, and a 2025 trade deficit narrowed to 2.6% of GDP, a historic low, on strong IT and tourism services exports.
The three numbers that matter to a foreign buyer
Public debt below 35% of GDP, reserves of 6.4 billion dollars at the end of April 2026 covering 102% of the IMF's reserve adequacy metric, and a trade deficit that narrowed in 2025 to 2.6% of GDP, described as a historic low. If you are buying property in a currency you do not earn, these are the figures that bear on whether you keep your money's value, more than anything in a listings portal. A state with low debt and adequate reserves has room to absorb an external shock without the kind of devaluation or capital control that hurts a foreign owner holding a lari-denominated asset.
Where the growth came from
Services. The narrowing of the trade deficit is attributed to strong services exports, particularly IT and tourism, alongside subdued goods imports. That composition is worth noting because it is the same two sectors that drive demand for the property most foreign buyers are looking at: offices and flats for relocated technology workers, and short-let stock for visitors. It also means the economy's strongest export lines are the ones most exposed to a change in sentiment abroad rather than to a commodity price.
The risks the Fund named
Energy price shocks connected to the Iran conflict, inflation proving persistent and requiring tighter policy, and what the central bank describes as recurring external shocks. Inflation had risen to 5.9% in April, mainly on energy, with the IMF expecting it to peak around mid-2026 and then fall gradually toward the 3% target; the National Bank expects target by mid-2027. The Fund endorsed the May rate increase and said further tightening could be needed if pressure persists. The banking system is assessed as sound, with banks well capitalised, liquid and profitable and non-performing loan ratios low.
How to use a macro review without overreading it
Macro strength tells you a country can take a hit; it does not tell you a particular flat is a good purchase. Georgia's debt and reserve position is the argument for being comfortable holding an asset here through a bad year, not an argument for the price you pay. Set it alongside the specifics: the yield you can actually evidence on your own unit, the taxes you will pay, what your exit costs, and how much of the local demand comes from one sector. And remember this assessment is from June and reflects conditions and forecasts as they stood then.
Written by us from the source linked above, not investment, legal or tax advice. Figures and rules change — confirm anything that matters before acting on it.
