The IMF put Georgia's 2026 growth at 6.5% — the sentence underneath it matters more

In June 2026 the IMF raised its growth projection for Georgia to 6.5% for the year, describing the economy as resilient in the face of heightened global uncertainty, including risks from the conflict in the Middle East. It expects the country's international reserve coverage to strengthen further, the current account deficit to widen temporarily, and public debt to stay at prudent levels.

The fund expects inflation to remain above the target level until mid-2027. Read next to August's reading of 5.6% a year on, that is a forecast of a fairly long stretch in which prices keep running ahead of the central bank's comfort zone. For a landlord, above-target inflation is not automatically bad news: rents can be reset, and a mortgage taken in lari erodes in real terms. For a buyer holding cash in lari while they shop, it is a slow cost.

It is worth keeping two things apart. A 6.5% growth rate describes the size of the economy; it does not promise that the rent on a two-bedroom flat in Saburtalo will rise. Georgia has recently run strong headline growth alongside asking rents that have fallen three years in a row, because rental prices answer to the supply of new flats and the number of arriving tenants rather than to GDP. Use the macro forecast for the question it can answer — is the currency and the fiscal position stable enough to hold an asset here — and use local supply data for the rent.

The fund's own framing names the risk: global uncertainty, with the Middle East singled out. Georgia's exposure runs through transit and trade flows, remittances and tourist arrivals, all of which respond quickly to events well outside the country. A forecast made in June is a snapshot, not a guarantee, and the next Article IV round will be the honest test of whether 6.5% survives contact with the second half of the year.