Inflation held at 5.6% in September and the National Bank is still at 8.25% — the next decision is 21 October

Annual inflation measured 5.6 per cent in September 2026, the same as in August, with prices up 0.4 per cent over the month. Underneath that steady headline the categories moved a long way. Transport was 18.7 per cent dearer than a year earlier, up from 15.2 per cent in August. Housing and utilities rose 9.2 per cent, health 8.0 per cent and restaurants and hotels 7.3 per cent. Food and non-alcoholic drinks slowed sharply, to 3.4 per cent from 5.0 per cent. Clothing and footwear were 1.8 per cent cheaper than a year ago, and education prices 12.5 per cent lower.

At its meeting on 9 September 2026 the National Bank of Georgia left the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.25 per cent. It put the overshoot above its 3 per cent target down mainly to supply shocks — energy prices first, with rising international food prices behind them — rather than to domestic demand. Core inflation was 3.6 per cent in August and services inflation 4.4 per cent, both well below the headline, which is the bank's evidence that the pressure is imported. Its central scenario has average inflation at about 5.2 per cent for 2026, converging on the 3 per cent target over the medium term. Growth, meanwhile, averaged 7.9 per cent over the first seven months of the year.

The policy rate sets the floor under lari lending, so holding it means lari mortgage and business-loan pricing has no particular reason to fall this month. Owners thinking about refinancing and buyers comparing a lari loan against a foreign-currency one have a date to watch: the committee's next decision is 21 October 2026. The bank has also said that if a prolonged supply shock starts shifting inflation expectations it would raise the rate moderately — which puts the near-term risk on the upside, not the downside. That is the bank's own stated reaction function, not a prediction about what it will do.

For anyone letting a flat or running a guesthouse, the two fastest-rising groups are the ones that land straight in the operating budget: utilities, up 9.2 per cent over the year, and transport, up 18.7 per cent, which feeds through to anything driven or delivered. Restaurants and hotels at 7.3 per cent gives a rough sense of how far nominal room rates across the sector have already moved. All of these are September figures — the last published month — and the next consumer price release is due in early November, so anyone setting rates for the winter is working off this print.