Georgia's growth forecasts were raised on exports — and the inflation line moved too

In a note published on 6 May 2026, TBC Capital raised its 2026 growth projection for Georgia from 6.1% to 7.4%, pointing to accelerating commodity exports supported in part by higher global prices. The economy had grown 9.1% year on year in the first quarter, with March at 10.7%. The analysts noted that export growth in March ran about USD 90 million ahead of February, more than offsetting roughly USD 75 million of tourism losses in the same month.

The same publication moved the year-end inflation forecast from 5.6% to 6.0%, citing an April reading above expectations and renewed oil price increases; on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis April inflation was put at 21%, the highest since 2022. Faster growth and faster price increases arriving together is a different environment from growth alone, particularly for anyone with costs fixed in lari and income in it.

Other institutions published lower numbers for the same year — the Asian Development Bank put Georgian growth at 5.5% for 2026, citing geopolitical risk. The spread between forecasters is itself information: it marks how much of the outlook depends on conditions outside the country, such as commodity prices and regional stability. A buyer or developer planning around a single headline figure is planning around the most optimistic reading of an uncertain year.