A forecast of 35,000 completions in Tbilisi and 18,000 in Batumi — and Batumi yields projected down from 7.4%

A Galt & Taggart construction-sector forecast reported at the end of April 2026 projects record housing completions this year: around 35,000 units in Tbilisi and up to 18,000 in Batumi. It also sets out the permit pipeline behind those deliveries — 11.4 million square metres of construction permits issued across Georgia in 2025, after a record 12 million in 2024, with Tbilisi accounting for 6.4 million square metres and Adjara 1.9 million. The sector itself is put at roughly 8 percent of GDP in 2025, having grown from about 2.5 billion dollars in 2015 to 7.3 billion in 2025.

The same analysis expects costs and prices to move in uncomfortable directions for a landlord: construction costs up roughly 8 percent in 2026 and wages up around 9 percent, with a potential decline in both prices and rental yields ahead. For Batumi specifically it projects apartment rental yields falling from 7.4 percent in 2025 to somewhere between 5.1 and 3.4 percent. A forecast is not a measurement, and this one is a house view rather than official data — but the direction follows from arithmetic rather than opinion: a large volume of new flats arriving in one coastal market puts downward pressure on the rent each one can ask.

Not as a reason to buy or not buy, but as a stress test. Take the gross yield an agent quotes you, apply the lower end of that projected range, subtract management, vacancy, furnishing replacement and the 5 percent tax on residential rent, and see whether the deal still works. If it only works at the top of the range, you are relying on the supply forecast being wrong. The other practical reading is on timing: a market receiving thousands of units at once rewards a differentiated unit — a good floor, a real view, a finished fit-out — far more than a standard one.