The $5bn tourism forecast for 2026, and the 2025 numbers it was built on

At the end of January 2026, analysts at the investment company Galt & Taggart lifted their forecast for Georgia's full-year tourism revenue from 4.9 billion to 5 billion dollars, which would be a record, and put total visits at 6.1 million. The stated basis was continued growth in arrivals together with a shift in demand toward a more affluent segment from the European Union, Israel and Asian countries. It is worth being clear about what that is: a projection made nine months ago, not a result. The year it describes is not finished.

The historical figures behind the forecast are the more useful material. International tourism revenue in 2025 exceeded 4.69 billion dollars, up 6% on 2024, according to National Bank of Georgia data cited in the report — close to nine times the 2020 pandemic low of 541.7 million. Revenue was heavily weighted to the warm months: roughly 826 million dollars in the first quarter, about 1.1 billion in the second, 1.66 billion in the third and 1.05 billion in the fourth. Total visits passed 7.8 million, up 5.9%.

By revenue, the top three source markets in 2025 were Russia at about 694 million dollars, Turkey at 605.9 million and Israel at 586.3 million — the last of those up 34.3% on the year, the fastest move among the leaders. By visits, Europe dominated the count with 6.86 million, followed by Asia-Pacific at 512,737, the Middle East at 232,626 and the Americas at 78,043, up 11.1%. Visits and revenue are different questions, and for anyone pricing a property or an experience the revenue split is the one that matters: it says which guests pay more per trip.

A revenue forecast is a statement about demand, and demand is what sets the ceiling on room rates, short-let pricing and the price a tour can carry. But a figure published in January carries the assumptions of January, and the sensible way to use it is as a benchmark to test against the quarterly data as it appears, rather than as a number to plan a business around. If arrivals or spend per trip come in softer than the forecast assumed, the first place it shows up is nightly rates in the shoulder months — which is where an owner should be watching anyway.