Fitch keeps Georgia at BB: strong numbers, and a political discount investors should price in

Fitch pointed to growth averaging more than 8% a year in 2023–2025 and expected a slight slowdown to 6.5% in 2026, still above the median for similarly rated countries. Public debt was below 35% of GDP in 2025, well under the roughly 52% median for BB-rated sovereigns, and the budget deficit was 1.4% of GDP. The banking sector was described as strong and profitable, with non-performing loans at 2.5% in March 2026. The current-account deficit narrowed to 2.6% of GDP last year, and reserves reached USD 6.5 billion by April.

On the other side of the ledger, Fitch said domestic political tension remains high after the disputed 2024 parliamentary elections, with social divisions deepened by the foreign-influence transparency law, and that relations with the EU have deteriorated with no improvement expected soon. It also flagged relatively low reserve coverage, high net external debt and heavy foreign-currency exposure in the economy, alongside inflation that had risen to 5.9% in April and prompted a rate rise to 8.25%.

BB sits below investment grade, and a stable outlook means Fitch does not expect a change in either direction in the near term. For someone buying property or a business, the review points to an economy with sound public finances and banks, where the main risks are political and external rather than fiscal. Those risks tend to show up through the lari exchange rate and through the flow of foreign visitors and residents who underpin rental demand, so they are worth building into any return you expect.